乔纳森·赫德（Jonathan Head）BBC驻东南亚记者2023年12月12日
中国领导人习近平星期二（12月12日）已抵达越南展开正式访问，并与越共中央总书记阮富仲举行了会面。会晤时预料会有大量的溢美之词被用于颂扬这两个共产主义邻邦之间的历史友谊。
一年前，阮富仲访问北京，获得了中国为外国政要颁发的最高勋章。习近平将中越关系描述为“同志加兄弟”，两国“山水相连、唇齿相依”。
越南预料将宣布加入习近平的“人类命运共同体”，这是一个以中国为中心、很大程度上基于象征意义的概念，被广泛视为是对美国主导的全球秩序的挑战。
这将巧妙地推动中国在争夺越南忠诚的竞争中先于美国一步。今年九月，美国总统拜登（Joe Biden）在访问河内期间，出人意料地将美越关系提升为“全面战略伙伴”。这使得华盛顿在越南精心制定的国际伙伴等级中与北京处于同一水平。
视频加注文字，习近平到访越南 “命运共同体”概念能否让两国关系升温？
在本周的访问期间，中国还将提供其先进的铁路技术，帮助越南升级交通基础设施。 其中包括一条从中国南部到越南海防港的铁路线。
该铁路穿过越南稀土矿藏最为丰富的地区，而中国是世界上最大的稀土出口国和精炼国。稀土是生产电动汽车和可再生能源所必需的原料。
他们（至少在公开场合）肯定不会谈论的是两国在南海岛屿问题上的激烈领土争端，以及中越在上世纪七、八十年代的紧张关系，其中包括1979年导致双方数以千计士兵丧生的全面边境战争。
当然也不会提及中国对越南的长期殖民历史，这在越南被称为“千年北属”（nghìn năm bắc thuộc）。两位领导人不会提及的还有越南对中国在湄公河上修建大坝所造成影响的不满。
但在越南，许多人正在网上讨论这些摩擦点。因为相比而言，越南的网络管控没有中国那么严格。
一位越南“脸书”（Facebook）用户写道：“我们只想要和平，所以习主席请不要来。”
“如果习近平取消九段线，两国就可以立即成为兄弟。”另一位网友写道。他指的是中国对南海大部分地区广泛的主权声索。
越南在击败法国和美国后赢得了独立，这种自豪的民族主义情绪与对中国这个北方巨邻的历史恐惧相融合，使得越南公众的反华情绪比东南亚其他任何地方都更为强烈。这种情绪一直需要越南共产党领导人谨慎处理。
近年来，越南的反华抗议活动时有发生。2014年，中国在被越南视作自己的领海内部署石油钻井平台后，甚至引发了骚乱，导致多人死亡、数十家外资工厂被毁。几年前，河内开始出现一些商店，承诺只销售越南制造的商品，而不销售中国制造商品。
最近，两国政府都避免了类似2014年石油钻井平台事件这样的挑衅行为，从而冷却了公众对这些问题的情绪，但两国关系从未风平浪静。
越南人对“九段线”（在越南被轻蔑地称为“牛舌线”）问题情绪高涨，以至于今年当局禁止了电影《芭比》（Barbie）的上映，因为电影中疑似出现了一张标有中国争议领土的地图。
越南也一直不愿接受习近平“一带一路”倡议下的中国投资，部分原因是这些投资可能会激起越南人对中国经济足迹的不满。
但中国的经济足迹是巨大的——无论公众对中国看法如何，任何越南领导人都不敢冒破坏的风险。
中国是越南最大的贸易伙伴，每年双边贸易额接近2000亿美元（1590亿英镑）。中国是越南最大的外国直接投资来源地，而美国则相形见绌。尽管美国公司试图减少对中国的依赖，将越南作为替代制造中心的说法不绝于耳。其中一些投资甚至是受美国与中国“脱钩”政策的推动，因为一些中国企业将生产转移到越南，试图绕过美国的新限制。
最重要的是，两国领导层之间仍然存在意识形态上的联系。
习近平和阮富仲都是强硬派，深受各自政党威权意识形态的影响，对西方民主价值观嗤之以鼻，并决心维持各自政党对政治生活的铁腕控制。
然而，他们的战略构想终究存在着巨大差异。
中国是一个新兴超级大国，决心挑战美国领导的冷战后的单极秩序，并在该地区发挥主导影响力。
越南是一个中等规模的国家，决心通过平衡与中美这两个对手之间的关系，尽可能多地获得利益和安全保障。此外，越南在历史上还与俄罗斯关系密切，现在也依旧重视莫斯科。
阮富仲将这种外交政策称为“竹子外交”，这是一种灵活的外交政策，符合越南在1986年结束亲苏孤立后所采取的“四不”政策：不参加军事联盟、不联合一国反对另一国、不允许外国在越南设立军事基地、不在国际关系中诉诸武力。
该政策的理念是与所有国家都化敌为友。不过，中国不会对此抱有幻想。北京会认为，今年越南与美国升级关系是为了对冲中国在该地区的影响力和主导权。
对于越南领导人来说——虽然不一定是越南人民——在他们所寻求的其他众多友谊中，中国必须是第一位的。但是，这种关系将始终受制于各种事件——无论是南海的擦枪走火，还是中国任何被越南人视作高压手段的其他行为。
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